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90% of commissioners think Five Year Forward View will fail


16 November 2016

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Nine in ten clinical commissioning group leads believe there is a high risk that the goals set out in the Five Year Forward View will not be met, according to a think tank survey.

In a survey of 39 CCGs by The King’s Fund, 90% of finance leads said, “there is a high or very high risk of failing to achieve the productivity gains suggested by the Forward View”.

The same number of finance leads also said they were “fairly or very pessimistic” about the financial state of the healthcare economy as a whole.

Nine in ten clinical commissioning group leads believe there is a high risk that the goals set out in the Five Year Forward View will not be met, according to a think tank survey.

In a survey of 39 CCGs by The King’s Fund, 90% of finance leads said, “there is a high or very high risk of failing to achieve the productivity gains suggested by the Forward View”.

The same number of finance leads also said they were “fairly or very pessimistic” about the financial state of the healthcare economy as a whole.

However, the survey, part of the think tank’s Quarterly Monitoring Report, also found that 63% of CCGs are forecasting a surplus for 2016/17.

But 71% said their projected spend depends on “significant financial support”, with 50% relying on the delay or cancellation of spending, 21% depending on their surplus being carried over from previous years and 21% relying on having their 1% risk reserve released back to them.

Across the 48 CCGs covered, the report says there is a net surplus forecast for 2016/17 of around £94 million.

For the first time, the report includes analysis of demand and activity in general practice.

Analysis of data from more than 200 practices shows an almost 10 per cent increase in patient contacts (including telephone consultations) over the past two years, confirming the huge pressures on general practice.

Chris Ham, chief executive of The King’s Fund, said: “The NHS is treating more patients than ever before, and these findings show that rising demand is putting its services under increasing pressure.

“The NHS needs to redouble efforts to manage demand and this will require investment in out-of-hospital services via the sustainability and transformation plans now being developed across England.

“The most pressing priority for next week's Autumn Statement is to provide more funding for social care, following years of budget cuts. Not only would this benefit some of the most vulnerable people in society, but it would also help relieve pressure on the NHS.”

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